Confident because prices are up +7.85% in the past year and +85.70% over the decade, tied to steady population growth: Ballarat added 2,102 people in 2025 (+1.7%) to reach 122,661. Supply hasn't kept up — there's just 1.64 months of stock on the market, down from over 5 months in 2024, so buyers are competing for fewer homes.
Rental Demand
Confident because vacancy is just 1.39% — at the tight end of the 1–3.5% balanced range — and rents are up +5.21% this year and +50.51% over ten years. It's tied to a large health and education workforce (19.1% and 10.8% of local jobs), with the $401.9M Ballarat Base Hospital redevelopment under construction. Rent searches here also outscore buy searches (7.0 vs 5.0).
Why This Suits You
Affordable entry point — a typical house at $639K sits well under the $1M mark
Proven long-term growth — prices up +85.70% in ten years, with far more months of growth than decline (growth-cycle index 176)
Low-maintenance hold — vacancy of 1.39% means tenants are easy to find, and a typical house sells in 35 days
Trade-offs
Both trade-offs trace back to the 2021–22 boom, when prices jumped about 42% in two years. Prices then slipped 7.5% over 2023–24 and only passed the old peak in early 2026, so over the longer run Ballarat has trailed its neighbours (GSP -18.7%). The run-up also squeezed yield, which is 3.6% today against 4.45% in 2016 — expect to top up holding costs early. What offsets them: the recovery is now well underway (+7.85% this year) and stock on market is near its lowest in six years.
Industry sector of employment, 2021 — top 6 by share
Health Care and Social Assistance19.1%
Education and Training10.8%
Retail Trade10.1%
Construction9.5%
Manufacturing7.2%
Accommodation and Food Services7.2%
All four charts sourced directly from the City of Ballarat's public economy.id / forecast.id / profile.id profiles (informed decisions).
Market & insurance risk
Higher = more favourable
EDI
57
Variety of industries & employment sources locally
MADI
97
Low reliance on volatile resource sectors
Bushfire Safety
100
Based on vegetation, topography & history
Flood Safety
88
Based on topography, watercourses & history
Demand profile — bedrooms × property type
3 Bed
4 Bed
2 Bed
5 Bed
1 Bed
3- and 4-bed houses dominate buyer & renter search activity in this market
Market trends
Historical data only
Headline values: $639K to buy, $443pw to rent, a 3.6% gross yield. Over the past decade, prices have moved +85.70% and rents +50.51% — prices have outpaced rents, which is why yield has drifted down from 4.45% in 2016.
1 Month
0.22%
1 Quarter
0.42%
1 Year
7.85%
3 Year
8.50%
5 Year
22.60%
7 Year
62.10%
10 Year
85.70%
Buy
$639K↑ +7.85%
Rent
$443pw↑ +5.21%
Yield
3.6%↓ -2.45%
Growth Rate Cycle
GRC Index: 176
GRC Index
176
+ve minus -ve growth months
GRC Minima
-3.44%
Depth of worst slowdown
GPD
-3.5%
Growth vs area's own long-run trend
GSP
-18.7%
Growth vs surrounding LGA/state
Supply
~218 new listings/month
New stock on market
0.39%
Inventory
1.64 mo
Building approvals
2.03%· 1,134
Hold period
6.60 yrs
Demand
Typical sale takes 35 days
Days on market
35 days· 4.34% discount
Vacancy rate
1.39%
Buy & rent search index
5.0 Buy|7.0 Rent
Clearance rate
30.30%
Auctions are uncommon in Ballarat (often fewer than ten a month, with most homes selling by private treaty), so read the clearance rate as indicative only.
Fundamentals
Underlying market quality
A sales ratio of 7.3% and rental ratio of 5%, with local schools ranked 54/100 and $2,177 of infrastructure spend per capita — the underlying quality signals behind the headline numbers above.
Affordability index — years of income to buy (Oct 2020 – Oct 2026)
32.9 yrs
Market stability
Sales ratio
7.3%
Annual sales, % of dwellings
Rental ratio
5%
Annual rentals, % of dwellings
School rank
54/100
Catchment school quality
RO ratio
33%
Owner-occupier vs investor
Infra. spending
$2,177
Active infrastructure pipeline, per capita
IRSAD
7
Socio-economic advantage index
Public housing
4.0%
Share of dwellings
Unit-to-house ratio
9.00%
Market depth
UH value ratio
66%
Typical unit vs house values
Major projects
HtAG Projects · as at 3 November 2026
ⓘ Covers all projects recorded in Ballarat since 2020 — completed, active and proposed
Project pipeline at a glance
Total projects
33
Total stated value across the 29 projects with a published cost
$1.3B
Completed
21
Active (approved / under construction)
11
Proposed
1
Projects by type
Type
Projects
Transport
14
Commercial
6
School
5
Health
4
Industrial
4
Top 10 projects by stated value
1.Ballarat Base Hospital Redevelopment
Redevelopment of Ballarat Base Hospital.
Value: $401.9MLocation: Ballarat Central
Under construction
2.St John of God Ballarat Hospital Redevelopment
Redevelopment of St John of God Ballarat Hospital.
Value: $58MLocation: Ballarat Central
Completed
3.Ballarat Intermodal Freight Hub
Intermodal freight hub for Ballarat.
Value: $55.5MTiming: Mid 2026 – Late 2026
Under construction
4.Delacombe Town Centre Stage 2
Second stage of the Delacombe Town Centre.
Value: $29.4MLocation: Smythes Creek
Completed
5.Education or assembly building, Forest Street, Wendouree
Education or assembly building on Forest Street.
Value: $26.4MLocation: Wendouree
Completed
6.Delacombe Village
Approved Delacombe Village development.
Value: $25.9MLocation: Smythes Creek
Approved
7.Learmonth Road Retail Hub
Approved retail hub on Learmonth Road.
Value: $23.5MLocation: Wendouree
Approved
8.Education or assembly building, Geelong Road, Mount Clear
Approved education or assembly building on Geelong Road.
Value: $16MLocation: Mount Clear
Approved
9.Retail building, Albert Street, Sebastopol
Approved retail building on Albert Street.
Value: $14.5MLocation: Sebastopol
Approved
10.Factory or laboratory, Waringa Drive, Mitchell Park
Approved factory or laboratory on Waringa Drive.
Value: $12.4MLocation: Mitchell Park
Approved
Sourced from HtAG Projects (as at 3 November 2026), which compiles council, state government and ABS building-approval records. Projects shared across several councils (Ballarat to Ouyen – Scoping and Development, across 6 councils) and region-wide programmes (Murray Basin Freight Rail Project, $240M across 18 councils) are excluded from the top 10 because no Ballarat-specific cost is published. The Miners Rest Primary School sports court upgrade is listed by HtAG at $516.9M, which looks inconsistent with the scope of the works, so it is left out of the top 10 pending verification (the $1.3B total above includes it). Confirm current status before relying on this for a purchase decision.
What these numbers mean
Plain-English definitions
Economic profile
Gross Regional Product (GRP)
The total value of all goods and services produced within the LGA in a year — the local equivalent of GDP, a measure of the strength and size of the area's economy.
Population (ERP)
Estimated Resident Population — the ABS's official population count for the area, plus forward forecasts based on historical growth patterns.
Unemployment Rate
The share of the local labour force actively looking for work but not currently employed, measured quarterly.
Industry Sector of Employment
The percentage of local workers employed in each industry — shows what the area's economy actually runs on, and how reliant it is on any one sector.
Scores & risk
EDI
Economic Diversity Index — how many different industries employ people locally. Higher = less exposed to a single employer or sector downturn.
MADI
Mining & Agriculture Dominance Index — how reliant the local economy is on volatile resource sectors. Higher = less reliant, more stable.
Bushfire / Flood Safety
A safety score from 0–100 based on vegetation, topography, watercourses and historical incidents. Higher = safer.
IRSAD
ABS Index of Relative Socio-economic Advantage and Disadvantage — a decile (1–10) measuring the area's socio-economic profile. Higher = more advantaged.
Market trends
Typical price / Yield
Typical price is recalculated every month for the current month and all previous months. Yield is the resulting gross rental yield.
Growth Rate Cycle (GRC)
Tracks the speed of price growth, not price itself. A rising curve means growth is accelerating; a falling curve means it's cooling.
GRC Index
The area's current position in its growth cycle, calculated as the number of months with positive growth minus the number of months with negative growth.
GRC Minima
The lowest cyclical growth-rate point the area has recorded — the depth of its worst slowdown.
GPD (Growth Pattern Deviation)
How current growth compares with the area's own long-run trend, averaged across 3- to 10-year windows. Negative = growing slower than its own history.
GSP (Growth Spillover Potential)
How the area's growth compares with the surrounding areas, averaged across 3- to 10-year windows. Negative = it has trailed its neighbours.
Supply & demand
Stock on Market (SoM)
New listings as a % of total dwellings. Below ~0.4% is considered low supply — a tight market.
Inventory
Months it would take to sell all current stock at the recent sales rate. Under ~3 months leans toward sellers.
Building Approvals
New dwelling approvals as a % of total dwellings — a forward indicator of future supply, since approvals become homes in 2–3 years.
Hold Period
The average length of time owners keep a property before selling. Over ~7 years (a full property cycle) = tightly held.
Days on Market (DOM) & Discount
The typical time a property takes to sell, plus how much below the asking price vendors are accepting. Under ~35 days = high demand; a larger discount = more buyer bargaining power.
Vacancy Rate
The share of rental dwellings sitting vacant for 21+ days. Between 1% and 3.5% = balanced; under ~1% = very high tenant demand.
Search Index (Buy & Rent)
Online buy and rent search interest, scored 1–10 against the wider area and adjusted for population. Higher = the area is attracting a bigger share of attention.
Clearance Rate
The share of scheduled auctions that sell. Above ~70% = high demand. Less meaningful in months with only a handful of auctions, and where most homes sell by private treaty.
Fundamentals & projects
Affordability Index
Years of median household income required to buy the typical property outright.
Sales / Rental Ratio
Annual sales (or rentals) as a % of total dwellings — a measure of how much of the area turns over each year.
School Rank
Catchment school quality, scored out of 100 based on academic performance data.
RO Ratio
The balance of owner-occupiers to investors in the area.
Infra. Spending
Non-residential building approval value per adult resident — a proxy for how much infrastructure investment is flowing into the area.
Unit-to-House / UH Value Ratio
How much of the housing stock is units vs houses, and how unit prices compare to house prices in the same area.
Public Housing
The share of dwellings in the area that are government-owned social housing.
Stated Project Value
The published cost of a project. Some projects have no published cost, or share one cost across several councils, so they aren't counted in the total.
Definitions simplified for client readability — see HtAG's own data dictionary for full technical methodology.
Important: Market and project data sourced from HtAG Analytics. Economic data from economy.id, forecast.id and profile.id (informed decisions).
Figures shown are indicative and general in nature only, and do not constitute personal financial, investment, or legal advice. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. You should seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Mindset Property Pty Ltd, ACN 664 657 247.
